Friday, July 27, 2012

Saturday Race of the Day - The Adios

The biggest day of the year at The Meadows is upon us and in the $500,000 Delvin Miller Adios Final, while we have a short field of six starters, we have what can arguably be called the strongest field ever assembled for the Meadows classic with the presence of the top tier of 3yo pacing colts in training at this time.  Let's take a look at the field:

The Meadows 12th Pace - $500,000; Delvin Miller Adios Final - 3yo Open (Exacta, Trifecta, Start of Pic 3)
1  Bolt The Duer (MacDonald, 10-1) - Took the lead past the quarter and just missed at the wire.  A very good horse but is just a notch below the tier.  I would consider him for trifectas.

2  Bettor's Edge (Dube, 4-1) - Was able to win his split of the eliminations coming from post position nine.  This is a much better race than he has been showing, could it be signs he is finally clicking?

3  Breakin The Law (D Miller, 8-1) - Finished third in his elimination but while a speedy sort, he does seem to be in over his head.  Will pass on him.

4  Sweet Lou (Palone, 2-1) - The best horse on paper, the best driver at the Meadows; how do you beat this duo?  If allowed to get the lead without a challenge he wins easily.  The question is does someone decide to take it to him?

5  Allstar Legend (Morrill, 8-1) - Scratched

6  Thinking Out Loud (Campbell, 5-1) - Came home in a :26.2 to finish third after drawing the worst of it last week.  Expect him up closer in this race.  Possibility.

7  A Rocknroll Dance (Gingras, 7-2) -  Winner of Meadowlands Pace and runner-up in his elimination.  Realistically the only one who can sting the favorite.  The question is will he?  Regardless, it is all about the trip.

How the race will be run is the big question.  If the field allows Sweet Lou to get to the front and remain unchallenged early, the race is likely over.  Unfortunately, these days few drivers are willing to go for broke (all or none).  If Sweet Lou is left unchallenged, he is the winner but at his likely odds, I wouldn't touch him.  If you must play the race in this case, a simple Sweet Lou - A Rocknroll Dance exacta is in order.

On the other hand, if you think someone will try to sting Sweet Lou, he is certainly beatable.  Of course, the question is who will take it to Sweet Lou?  My guess is it will be either Bolt the Duer or Bettor's Edge.  If this is the case, I would likely play Thinking Out Loud to win.  If one insists on an exacta in this case, I would play Thinking Out Loud on top of A Rocknroll Dance.

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